The crypto bull run is a celebrated event in this industry. Occasionally, huge portions of the market will see an intense burst in value, the likes of which can be dramatic and highly lucrative. However, many people (both newbies and veterans alike) may be curious to know how long a bull run typically lasts for. There is no short answer to this, but let’s examine the sector and see what we can find.
A crypto bull is a period of time when a significant amount of the crypto market begins to see a spike in value. Usually, this will include Bitcoin and Ethereum, although there have been rare occasions where altcoins have reacted more positively than the giants of the industry.
There is no direct answer to how long a crypto bull run typically lasts, however, we can turn to historical data to give us an indication. Let’s look at two former bull runs and see what we can learn from them. To simplify our discussion, we will zero in on Bitcoin for our data, although in reality not every crypto bull run has to involve BTC.
The 2013-2014 Bull Run
To start with, we will assess the 2013-2014 bull run– an historic period where Bitcoin first reached quadruple-figures. It is hard to say with certainty when exactly a bull run starts and when it finishes, as different people will use different dates. But for the purposes of this exercise, we will say that this bull run started on October 20th, 2013 when Bitcoin was at $170.00 USD, and ended around February 1st, 2014 when it reached $832.00 USD.
Its peak was on November 30th, 2013 when it reached $1127.00, however, it would be wrong to use this as the cuttoff date as there was still significant and positive financial activity happening between traders. This period covered 104 days.
The 2017-2018 Bull Run
We’ll now move to the legendary 2017-2018 bull run. This was a period of intense crypto activity that overlapped these two years. This possibly began on July 25th, 2017, when Bitcoin was at $2,500 USD, and ended around January 6th, 2018, when it reached $18,300 USD. However, the all-time high that was reached during this period was actually higher than $18,300.
While you could measure a bull run by the highest point an asset reaches, this would be an unfair representation because even after an ATH there is money pouring into the sector, and many other assets will be performing well. This period covered 165 days.
2020-2021 Bull Run
Let’s now look at how long the 2020-2021 crypto bull run lasted. This arguably began on July 29th, 2020, where BTC was at $10,900, and potentially ended on November 14th, 2021 when BTC reached $16,600. This period covered 473 days. This is a tremendously long time compared to the previous two we’ve examined.
After taking a look at three bull runs we have found three slightly different answers. The 2013-2014 bull run and the 2017-2018 bull run are relatively close in duration, spanning 104 and 165 days respectively. However, the 2020-2021 bull run is significantly longer at 473 days.
If we crunch these numbers then we can find out that on average a crypto bull run lasts 247 days. The average here is obviously brought upwards by the 2020-2021 bull run. Alternatively, we could take this one out of the equation, assuming it is merely an outlier, and determine a bull run as usually taking up around 134 days. Both of these numbers are equally valid– it really comes down to whether you see the 2020-2021 bull run as an anomaly or not.
Bull runs do not form out of a vacuum. They arise when there is a range of significant activity occurring in connection to the industry. These include the following:
Market Sentiment: The perspectives of traders, high-profile investors, traditional media, and contemporary social media have an impact on when a crypto bull run emerges, and how long it lasts. While these factors do not always influence the market, there have been times when they were obviously the driver for an uptick in prices. One infamous example of this involves Elon Musk (somebody who fits the bill as a high-profile investor and extremely influential figure on social media). On February 8th 2021 his tweets were considered by many as lengthening the bull run at that time. In these tweets, he discussed that Tesla had bought a sizeable portion of BTC, which coincided with a spike in price.
Regulatory Activity: Regulators can have a significant impact on how the crypto market operates. A particularly seismic example is when the SEC approved the first Bitcoin ETF. This helped improve the asset’s price, and in turn the rest of the market.
Technical Changes: Sometimes a blockchain’s underlying architecture can influence its price. Two examples are when Bitcoin undergoes its Halving (the process of mining rewards being slashed to reduce new circulation) and when Ethereum was updated to become proof-of-stake.
When we’re in the throes of a crypto bull run, it can be hard to get accurate and reliable information, as the whole industry gets whipped up in the pandemonium. As a result, many myths have evolved over time about them. Let’s break some of them down.
All Cryptocurrencies Rise Together
While the greatest bull runs tend to involve a huge number of cryptocurrencies, there is never a time when all of these assets will rise. Some will have a delayed reaction to the bull run, and some may never rise at all. A good example of this is Monero (XMR). Despite being one of the older cryptocurrencies in the market, with a strong following and a robust legacy, XMR is often non-responsive to bull runs.
You Can Time The Market
There will always be individuals who believe they have cracked the sacred crypto code and figured out how to time the market for a bull run. However, the reality is that this industry is far too complex to expect a fully reliable reading of it. In reality, even traditional markets like gold and stocks can be hard to predict, even though we have so much data on them. So with that in mind, you can imagine how much more complex it would be to time a more contemporary and varied market as crypto.
Social Media Hype is a Reliable Indicator
Nowadays we tend to look at social media as a barometer for what we should (or should not) do. These platforms can be fantastic for discovering new assets, trends, and services. They also help to get an idea of market sentiment. However bear in mind this will only be a limited view of trader-perspectives. Not everybody who comments on the moves of a market actually invests in it.
Others are merely fans, and some may not even have any crypto assets whatsoever. Nevertheless, people will see them and get the impression they are directly involved in the market. A huge amount of traders will actually never post about their cryptocurrency, as some believe it is bad practice to broadcast your interest in crypto to the world as it can lead to scammers and hackers targeting you. With this in mind, you should definitely take social media perspectives with a grain of salt.
Not only this, but keep in mind that oftentimes the commentary you will see on social media will actually be chasing the market prices, not preceding them. For instance, people who speak positively about the market during a bull run will usually begin to do so once the bull run has actually started, rather than the other way around. This means that they are not indicating future activity, but rather remarking on current activity.
An exception may be when high-profile influencers discuss crypto, although even this is not foolproof. Elon Musk was used as an example of somebody who’s social media activity may have moved the market. Yet, when he performed on SNL in the same year and discussed Dogecoin, the asset did not move upwards, despite much anticipation. This is an example of how temperamental crypto can be.
Bull Runs Must Involve Bitcoin
While practically every bull run has also seen Bitcoin rise in value, this is not a necessity. There are occasions when altcoins begin to perform well, without Bitcoin seeing the same action. This happened around early 2021, when several high-profile altcoins (including Cardano, Binance’s BNB, and Polkadot) saw an uptick, while Bitcoin remained stagnant. It’s worth noting, however, that this occurred within a larger overall bull run, and so this did not mean Bitcoin was doing poorly when zoomed out. Rather, the altcoin bull run was a smaller event contained within something much bigger.
A bear market is the opposite of a bull market. It is where the crypto market starts to see a downturn in price, which can sometimes be drastic. The key difference is that prices will be lowering, rather than rising, although there are some other signs to keep an eye out for.
Decreased Excitement: When a bear market occurs, you will start to see reduced excitement, both from within the retail sector, and within spaces where high-profile investors would fund projects. In a bear market, it is extremely hard to bootstrap a project, as there is much less interest, and more anxiety.
Fearmongering: Bear markets bring out the worst in people. There will be many traders who struggle financially during these times, and so they tend to have a more gloomy and bitter outlook overall. As a result, they may create content or share sentiments that are extremely negative, sometimes going so far as to speculate that the market is heading into a years-long nosedive.
Ponzi-style scams: Ponzi-schemes are scams that promise gains by incentivising new members to join a project, so that their money can pay for the returns of previous members. They appear quite often in bear markets as they give the impression that you can get a guaranteed return in a space where everybody else is struggling. You do not see them so much in bull markets (although they’re still out there), but when there are economic downturns, they really come out of the woodwork.
The general rule appears to be that a crypto bull run lasts, on average, 250 days. Keep this in mind, although it would be smart to not hold onto this number as a hard fact, as this industry is always full of surprises, and so the nature of a bull run could certainly change over time.
Related Content: How to Use Ledn in Different Market Conditions
Regardless of whether you find yourself enjoying a bull run, or caught in a bear run, it is always a good idea to consider options for passively growing any crypto you have, especially if you’re holding assets long-term. Make sure to check out Ledn’s Growth Accounts, where you can currently earn up to 10.5% APY. Ledn currently supports Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even stablecoins like USDT and USDC. While stablecoins are not affected by bull markets (as they are inherently pegged to the price of fiat), you can still earn a return on them via a savings account. See what Ledn has to offer, and whether these options suit your needs as a crypto user.
Disclaimer
This article is sponsored by 21 Technologies Inc. and/or its subsidiaries (“Ledn”) and is for general information, discussion, or educational purposes only and is not to be construed or relied upon as constituting legal, financial, investment, accounting, tax, estate-planning, or other professional advice or recommendation. Please read Ledn’s full Risk Disclosure Statement and Disclaimers.
