Bitcoin BTCUSD fell to a four-month low of $74,500 on April 7, and data suggests that the price may not have bottomed yet.
Investors dumped risk assets after US President Donald Trump doubled down on his plan to impose global tariffs over the weekend, triggering a $9.5 trillion wipeout in global equity markets.
Growing calls for a US recession have spooked risk investors while leaving crypto market participants wondering how low can the Bitcoin price go in the near future.
Bitcoin eyes decline toward “Saylor’s average entry“ level
Bitcoin is currently testing a critical technical level—the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA)—which has historically acted as a dividing line between bull and bear phases.
According to market analyst Ted Pillows and numerous other chartists, Bitcoin must reclaim the EMA, currently near $77,500, to avoid a deeper correction.
If BTC fails to close back above it, Pillows warns of a potential decline toward the $69,000–$70,000 range, which aligns with the 2021 cycle highs. A further drop to $67,000, the average entry-level of Strategy’s Michael Saylor, also remains a possibility.
Bitcoin “max pain” target is near $69,000
Bitcoin appeared to have found short-term support at around $74,000, which corresponds to a notable cost-basis cluster where over 50,000 BTC are held.
Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution (URPD) heatmap shows this is the first major cost-basis cluster below $80,000. These holders raised their average buy price until March 10, then stopped moving coins—showing confidence, not panic.
Investors hold around 175,000 BTC in the $74,000–$70,000 range, creating a strong buffer zone. The largest cluster sits at $71,600, with 41,000 BTC concentrated there, making it the likely next support if $74,000 breaks.
Meanwhile, Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price bands place the current average STH cost basis at $89,000, with the -1 standard deviation band at $69,000.
This level has acted as a historical “max pain” zone for short-term investors during pullbacks in previous bull cycles, suggesting the $69,000 level is a floor where weak hands capitulate and long-term investors often step in.
A $50,000 Bitcoin price target cannot be ruled out
Historical patterns reveal Bitcoin entering a prolonged bear market after breaking decisively below the 50-week EMA support. In most cases, such corrections have led the price toward the 200-week EMA, as shown in red circular areas below.
If the fractal analysis plays out as intended, Bitcoin’s price target in the event of a 50-week EMA breakdown appears to be around $50,000, aligning with the 200-week EMA’s current positioning.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
